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I don’t know enough about ensemble forecasting to be sure, but I think this would be feasible In principle, the common ‘patchy torrential downpours’ Spring rain pattern would show as rain curves each with different short periods of rain.

I don’t think the technology is up to that using genuine predictions, but it might be possible to predict that we’re going to get that sort of weather and simulate the ensemble curves.

A bigger problem is that houses are all individuals.

From the Herald (linking to this story) To begin with, “worst” is distinctly unfortunate now we’ve finally got a degree of political consensus that Auckland house prices are too high.

“Best” might be too much to hope for, but at least we could have a neutral term.

The story does admit to the problem with the headline, but it doesn’t really do anything to fix it.

A useful step would be to separate prices for apartments and houses (and maybe also for townhouses if they can be defined usefully) and say something about the price trends for each. Separating out changes in the mix of homes on sale from general house price inflation or deflation is also helpful in policy debates.

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